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招商宏觀:人民幣不一定進貶值通道

來源: 南方日報網絡版     時間: 2019年06月04日 07:57:29
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(  中)(國)(人)(民)(銀)(行)(完)(善)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(中)(間)(價)(報)(價)(點)(評)(  謝)(亞)(軒)(張)(一)(平)(招)(商)(宏)(觀)(研)(究)(  核)(心)(觀)(點)(:  1、完)(善)(中)(間)(價)(報)(價)(旨)(在)(擴)(大)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(波)(動)(區)(間)(。擴)(大)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(波)(幅)(有)(兩)(個)(途)(徑)(:第)(一)(,擴)(大)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(的)(波)(動)(區)(間)(,這)(是)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(改)(以)(來)(較)(為)(常)(用)(的)(一)(種)(方)(法)(。第)(二)(,增)(強)(人)(民)(幣)(中)(間)(價)(的)(彈)(性)(。人)(民)(幣)(即)(期)(匯)(率)(的)(波)(動)(區)(間)(是)(圍)(繞)(當)(日)(中)(間)(價)(確)(定)(的)(,一)(旦)(中)(間)(價)(波)(動)(性)(上)(升)(,那)(么)(即)(期)(匯)(率)(的)(波)(動)(性)(也)(會)(相)(應)(提)(升)(。市)(場)(化)(程)(度)(較)(低)(的)(人)(民)(幣)(中)(間)(價)(是)(制)(約)(即)(期)(匯)(率)(雙)(向)(浮)(動)(彈)(性)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(參)(考)(前)(日)(收)(盤)(匯)(率)(等)(多)(因)(素)(定)(價)(有)(助)(于)(完)(善)(有)(管)(理)(的)(浮)(動)(匯)(率)(制)(度)(。  2、弱)(化)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(對)(美)(元)(的)(釘)(住)(程)(度)(,更)(加)(全)(面)(反)(映)(一)(籃)(子)(貨)(幣)(的)(變)(化)(。去)(年)(以)(來)(美)(元)(與)(非)(美)(元)(貨)(幣)(走)(勢)(明)(顯)(分)(化)(,歐)(元)(、日)(元)(以)(及)(新)(興)(市)(場)(貨)(幣)(大)(幅)(走)(弱)(。盡)(管)(人)(民)(幣)(兌)(美)(元)(匯)(率)(小)(幅)(貶)(值)(,但)(相)(對)(于)(全)(球)(貨)(幣)(仍)(較)(為)(強)(勢)(,人)(民)(幣)(實)(際)(有)(效)(匯)(率)(大)(幅)(升)(值)(。“這)(一)(復)(雜)(局)(面)(形)(成)(了)(新)(的)(挑)(戰)(”,未)(來)(中)(間)(價)(的)(報)(價)(要)(考)(慮)(“國)(際)(主)(要)(貨)(幣)(匯)(率)(變)(化)(”。  3、央)(行)(選)(擇)(在)(此)(時)(進)(行)(匯)(改)(有)(如)(下)(兩)(方)(面)(的)(考)(慮)(:第)(一)(,目)(前)(國)(內)(經)(濟)(較)(為)(困)(難)(,下)(行)(壓)(力)(仍)(較)(為)(明)(顯)(,強)(勢)(實)(際)(有)(效)(匯)(率)(實)(際)(上)(對)(國)(內)(經)(濟)(施)(壓)(了)(較)(強)(的)(緊)(縮)(效)(應)(,對)(出)(口)(也)(形)(成)(較)(大)(壓)(力)(。因)(此)(增)(加)(中)(間)(價)(報)(價)(的)(市)(場)(化)(程)(度)(有)(助)(于)(降)(低)(實)(際)(匯)(率)(走)(強)(的)(不)(利)(沖)(擊)(,落)(實)(國)(務)(院)(穩)(定)(進)(出)(口)(指)(導)(意)(見)(的)(要)(求)(。第)(二)(,若)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(繼)(續)(維)(持)(以)(釘)(住)(美)(元)(為)(主)(的)(狀)(況)(,一)(旦)(美)(聯)(儲)(加)(息)(,則)(央)(行)(匯)(率)(政)(策)(、貨)(幣)(政)(策)(調)(整)(空)(間)(必)(然)(受)(限)(。趕)(在)(美)(國)(加)(息)(前)(完)(善)(中)(間)(價)(報)(價)(機)(制)(,有)(助)(于)(國)(內)(外)(匯)(市)(場)(形)(成)(不)(同)(方)(向)(的)(預)(期)(。盡)(管)(短)(期)(內)(央)(行)(可)(能)(有)(必)(要)(加)(強)(市)(場)(干)(預)(,但)(長)(期)(看)(,由)(于)(外)(匯)(市)(場)(形)(成)(一)(致)(預)(期)(可)(能)(性)(減)(少)(,人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(對)(央)(行)(的)(制)(約)(程)(度)(反)(而)(下)(降)(。  4、前)(瞻)(地)(看)(,完)(善)(中)(間)(價)(報)(價)(機)(制)(不)(一)(定)(意)(味)(著)(人)(民)(幣)(將)(進)(入)(貶)(值)(通)(道)(。匯)(率)(短)(期)(波)(動)(不)(可)(避)(免)(,勢)(必)(對)(短)(端)(利)(率)(形)(成)(擾)(動)(。基)(于)(維)(護)(流)(動)(性)(環)(境)(,年)(內)(降)(準)(概)(率)(提)(高)(。但)(人)(民)(幣)(是)(否)(進)(入)(貶)(值)(通)(道)(則)(要)(觀)(察)(美)(元)(指)(數)(的)(變)(化)(。若)(美)(元)(指)(數)(快)(速)(突)(破)(100并)(繼)(續)(上)(漲)(,則)(人)(民)(幣)(兌)(美)(元)(匯)(率)(將)(進)(一)(步)(走)(弱)(;若)(美)(元)(指)(數)(年)(內)(仍)(維)(持)(在)(95-100之)(間)(的)(水)(平)(,則)(即)(期)(匯)(率)(很)(可)(能)(形)(成)(區)(間)(波)(動)(。  5、市)(場)(化)(程)(度)(提)(高)(的)(匯)(率)(形)(成)(機)(制)(有)(助)(于)(人)(民)(幣)(加)(入)(SDR貨)(幣)(籃)(子)(。“推)(動)(外)(匯)(市)(場)(對)(外)(開)(放)(,延)(長)(外)(匯)(交)(易)(時)(間)(,引)(入)(合)(格)(境)(外)(主)(體)(,促)(進)(形)(成)(境)(內)(外)(一)(致)(的)(人)(民)(幣)(匯)(率)(”。都)(將)(便)(利)(國)(際)(投)(資)(者)(持)(有)(人)(民)(幣)(,增)(加)(使)(用)(人)(民)(幣)(的)(便)(利)(度)(。來)(源)(--)
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